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Blackjack – Bet-sizing For A Month (10,000 Hands)
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Let's say you are planning an extended session of blackjack during a 3- or 4-week trip, and you expect to play for a total of about 100 hours, or roughly 10,000 hands. After playing this many hands, you would not usually be ahead or behind by more than 250 units, but on rare occasions, you might find yourself off by as many as 400 units, due to normal fluctuation.
So, if your total bankroll is only a few thousand dollars or less, you could conceivably lose it all, even if you become an expert card counter. You could also ultimately be a victim of the table minimum bets, if, as your losing streak continued, you were not allowed to cut back to smaller bets to keep you from losing all your money. Frankly, if your bankroll is insufficient, you should not be making any bets at all.
Most players, of course, will not immediately have to fight through inordinate losing streaks, and some will even have the pleasure of improbable winning streaks. But fluctuation remains the leading deterrent to card counting: Most beginning counters overbet their bankrolls; those with negative fluctuations give up; those with positive fluctuations usually increase the size of their bets proportionately, continuing to over-bet their bankrolls, until their first big negative swing wipes them out.
Bet-sizing for a 3- or 4-week period (10,000 hands), works exactly the same as bet-sizing for a weekend. The only difference is that you should start by dividing your bankroll by 250, instead of 100, in order to determine your betting unit. In other words, to make $10 bets, you should have a bankroll of $2,500. Cut back to an $8 betting unit if your bankroll goes down to $2,000; $6 units if it falls to $1,500, and so on.
As you can see, the more hands you will play, the larger your bankroll must be to ensure your continuance in the game—even when the game is a break even proposition. In fact, the only way to get around this is to get the edge in your favor. If you can get the edge, via card counting, then your long run edge assures that your expected winnings will be greater than the possible negative fluctuations (assuming you also have the fortitude to continue hammering away at the tables through all the ups and downs).
To last in this game, you must have the money, you must size your bets in proportion to your bankroll, and you must reassess your bankroll frequently. You must never chase losses by increasing your bets to win back the money you've lost. If you follow these guidelines, you will have staying power at the tables. If you persevere and acquire skill as a counter, you're on your way to winning.
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Tags: Blackjack – Bet-sizing For A Weekend (1,000) Hands
Author: admin
First, divide your total bankroll into one hundred units. Let's assume you have $1,000, so you have one hundred $10 units. Here's how to handle a losing streak:
If you lose twenty units, or $200, quit play and reassess your bankroll. Since you now have only $800, divide that into one hundred units, and your new unit becomes $8. Play at this level until your bankroll either goes back up to $ 1,000, or spirals downward to $600. Whichever direction it goes, continue to reassess the size of your bankroll, and resize your bets accordingly so that you never bet much more than 1 % of your total bankroll on any given hand.
None of this will have any effect on the fact that over the long run, your expectation will be to break even, assuming you're playing in an even game. In a slightly negative expectation game, the house will slowly grind you down the longer you play. The purpose of this betting method, then, is primarily to train you to constantly monitor your bankroll size, and to keep you in the game longer when you hit a losing streak. It will not give you any long run advantage—in fact, if you are not playing with an advantage, as we assume here, you may expect that you may eventually lose your entire $1,000 bankroll to normal fluctuations. This is especially true if you practice in casinos where the table minimums are $5, so that you cannot reduce your bet any more if your bankroll dips below $500.
On the other hand, you may occasionally double your $1,000 starting bank in a weekend's play. Every gambler who plays in games where the house has only a small edge, such as blackjack, baccarat, or craps (pass or don't pass), will on occasion win or lose 100 betting units. Most players call this "luck;" mathematicians call it normal fluctuation.
If you practice in a casino where you must place $5 minimum bets, and your starting bankroll is $1,000, you would be wise to start out with a $5 betting unit and never waver, unless you came ahead a few hundred dollars. If your starting bankroll is less than $ 1,000, or if $ 1,000 represents a significant amount of money to you, play only table minimum bets when practicing. Be aware that you must view the cash as "play money," as you could conceivably lose it all due to normal fluctuation.
If the house has a slight edge (1/2% is typical in most traditional blackjack games), you may still use these guidelines for sizing your bets, but be aware that when the house has an edge, your bankroll will inevitably be depleted over the long run. Nevertheless, in the short run, anything can happen.
For card counters, and especially for high-stakes card counters, bet-sizing is more complex than the simple guidelines presented here, which are meant for beginners to use when practicing at low stakes. If you have a $50,000 bankroll, you would be ill-advised to follow the guidelines in this chapter, dividing your bankroll into 100 units of $500 each, in a breakeven (or negative-edge) game, just so you could practice basic strategy. Why chance losing twenty-thousand-dollars in a short period of play just for practice?
Practice at low stakes, and then use your big money to bankroll your play when you know what you're doing.
My bet-sizing advice here is pretty conservative. If you're purely a recreational player who typically goes to Las Vegas with $1,000, and can easily live with a total loss on your trips, then feel free to bet at whatever level of risk you feel comfortable with—my advice is primarily for players who want to learn to manage their money the way the pros do, minimizing the possibility of ruin.
If you have a computer, then by all means acquire one of the excellent software programs on the market that allow you to practice counting cards. Save your casino practice until you are an accomplished card counter, as practicing in a casino will always be more expensive than practicing at home. Get your basic skills down with as little expense as possible.
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